Dec 15, 2017

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KAI-TAK

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Dec, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KAI-TAK is currently located near 12.1 N 127.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). KAI-TAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    the Philippines
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
    San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours
    Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)
        probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours
    Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
        probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
    San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
    Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).


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