NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Dec, 2017 18:00 GMT

**Tropical Storm KAI-TAK is currently located near 12.1 N 127.1 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 45kts (52 mph). KAI-TAK is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):**

**Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

the Philippines

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Tacloban (11.2 N, 125.2 E)

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)

probability for TS is 100% in about 48 hours

Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)

probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours

Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)

probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours

Mamburao (13.2 N, 120.7 E)

probability for TS is 100% in about 36 hours

Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)

probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours

San Juan (10.3 N, 125.2 E)

probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Iloilo (10.9 N, 122.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Cebu (10.3 N, 123.8 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours

Taytay (10.8 N, 119.5 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).