N Atlantic: Storm Alert issued at 21 Nov, 2016 15:00 GMT

**Tropical Depression AL16 is currently located near 11.5 N 79.3 W with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 30kts (35 mph). AL16 is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):**

**Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

Nicaragua

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Costa Rica

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Panama

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 15% in about 21 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Bluefields (12.0 N, 83.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

San Andres (12.6 N, 81.7 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 69 hours

Bocas del Toro (9.3 N, 82.2 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

San Jose (9.9 N, 84.1 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 69 hours

probability for TS is 20% in about 69 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.