May 3, 2017

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone DONNA

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 3 May, 2017 18:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone DONNA is currently located near 12.9 S 169.6 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 65 kts (75 mph). DONNA is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DONNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):


Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Vanuatu
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Foreas (13.9 S, 167.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
    Onetar (14.3 S, 167.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Tasmaori (14.9 S, 168.1 E)
        probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
    Taktak (14.9 S, 166.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
    Vipaka (13.1 S, 166.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
    Luganville (15.5 S, 167.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
    Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E)
        probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
    Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
        probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
    Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
        probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.


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