SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 4 May, 2017 18:00 GMT

**Tropical Cyclone DONNA is currently located near 13.0 S 166.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 85 kts (98 mph). DONNA is a category 2 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DONNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):**

**Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

Vanuatu

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Vipaka (13.1 S, 166.6 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

**Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

New Caledonia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 120 hours

probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Foreas (13.9 S, 167.5 E)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Onetar (14.3 S, 167.4 E)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Taktak (14.9 S, 166.6 E)

probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Paeu (11.7 S, 166.8 E)

probability for TS is 80% currently

Luganville (15.5 S, 167.2 E)

probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Malombo (11.2 S, 166.5 E)

probability for TS is 55% currently

Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E)

probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours

probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.