SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 2 May, 2017 18:00 GMT
Tropical Storm EIGHTEEN is currently located near 13.0 S 171.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 40kts (46 mph). EIGHTEEN is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vanuatu
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Foreas (13.9 S, 167.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Onetar (14.3 S, 167.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Tasmaori (14.9 S, 168.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Vipaka (13.1 S, 166.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Taktak (14.9 S, 166.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Luganville (15.5 S, 167.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Lamen (16.6 S, 168.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours
Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Lenakel (19.5 S, 169.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
