SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 7 May, 2017 18:00 GMT

**Very Intense TC DONNA is currently located near 16.5 S 164.8 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 115 kts (132 mph). DONNA is a category 4 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. DONNA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):**

**Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

New Caledonia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

**Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

Vanuatu

probability for TS is 90% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tadine (21.5 S, 167.9 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours

Noum'ea (22.2 S, 166.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 48 hours

Kone (21.0 S, 164.8 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours

Taktak (14.9 S, 166.6 E)

probability for TS is 75% currently

Koumac (20.5 S, 164.3 E)

probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Bourail (21.6 S, 165.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Norsup (16.0 S, 167.4 E)

probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Luganville (15.5 S, 167.2 E)

probability for TS is 65% currently

Port Vila (17.7 S, 168.3 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.