NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 5 Aug, 2017 12:00 GMT

**Typhoon NORU is currently located near 29.9 N 129.9 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 75 kts (86 mph). NORU is a category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. NORU is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):**

**Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)**

Japan

probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% in about 24 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours

probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours

Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours

probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours

Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)

probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Tokushima (34.1 N, 134.6 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Matsue (35.4 N, 133.0 E)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Osaka (34.6 N, 135.5 E)

probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours

Shiono-misaki (33.5 N, 135.8 E)

probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Obama (35.4 N, 135.8 E)

probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours

Note that

Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.